Election Night

It's a funny thing watching an election from overseas. Most people here don't have a clue about Australian politics, my awareness-raising by wearing a "Kevin 07" shirt to work notwithstanding (thanks to Naomi). It's a bit strange not to go into a shop and have an impromptu exchange with the check-out chick/chook about the latest "who said what" on the campaign trail. As such, all my information comes through the news websites, and so it sometimes feels as if this is just an exceptionally long game of cricket. There's a score to keep track of (the polls), every now and then somebody takes a wicket, but for the most part the commentators just have to talk about, well, not very much really.

My fearless prediction? As a pessimistic man of the left, I predict a tight result and I would tend to think that the Liberals will just scrape a victory, something like a repeat of 1969. I've read that many voters, perhaps as large as 10-20%, make their mind up the day before or thereabouts. I'd say that many of these people would probably decide to stick with the Libs as they are the more trusted on the economy. This should be particularly strong in marginal electorates, exactly where Labor needs to pick up the votes.

Of course, I thought Rudd's big night out in Noo Yoik would be a terrible blow, so don't take my word for it. Because I don't get those random encounters with the vox populi, it's impossible for me to judge the popular mood. Maybe there is a real desire for change out there. But the election booths are now just about to open in the eastern states, so we will know soon enough.